Stokes matrices for the quantum differential equations of some Fano varieties

The classical Stokes matrices for the quantum differential equation of projective n-space are computed, using multisummation and the so-called monodromy identity. Thus, we recover the results of D. Guzzetti that confirm Dubrovin's conjecture for projective spaces. The same method yields explicit formulas for the Stokes matrices of the quantum differential equations of smooth Fano hypersurfaces in projective n-space and for weighted projective spaces.Comment: 20 pages. Introduction has been changed. Small corrections in the tex

Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models: a probabilistic approach

Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For the purpose, we have modified the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. [..]Comment: 25 pages, 14 figures, 9 tables. Revised version; accepted for publication in Geoscientific Model Development on 13 February 201

On the Logarithmic Asymptotics of the Sixth Painleve' Equation (Summer 2007)

We study the solutions of the sixth Painlev\'e equation with a logarithmic asymptotic behavior at a critical point. We compute the monodromy group associated to the solutions by the method of monodromy preserving deformations and we characterize the asymptotic behavior in terms of the monodromy itself.Comment: LaTeX with 8 figure

Changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the 20th century

Abstract. Only a few studies have investigated the geographical and temporal variations in the frequency and distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and the consequences of the variations on landslide risk. Lack of information limits the possibility to evaluate the impact of environmental and climate changes on landslide frequency and risk. Here, we exploit detailed historical information on landslides and rainfall in Calabria, southern Italy, between 1921 and 2010 to study the temporal and the geographical variation in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and in their impact on the population. We exploit a catalogue with information on historical landslides from June 1920 to December 2010, and daily rainfall records obtained by a network of 318 rain gauges in the same period, to reconstruct 448 493 rainfall events (RE). Combining the rainfall and the landslide information, we obtain a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides (REL), where an REL is the occurrence of one or more landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event. We find that (i) the geographical and the temporal distributions of the rainfall-induced landslides have changed in the observation period, (ii) the monthly distribution of the REL has changed in the observation period, and (iii) the average and maximum cumulated event rainfall that have resulted in landslides in the recent 30-year period 1981–2010 are lower than the rainfall necessary to trigger landslides in previous periods, whereas the duration of the RE that triggered landslides has remained the same. We attribute the changes to variations in the rainfall conditions and to an increased vulnerability of the territory. To investigate the variations in the impact of REL on the population, we compared the number of REL in each of the 409 municipalities in Calabria with the size of the population in the municipalities measured by national Censuses conducted in 1951, 1981, and 2011. We adopted two strategies; the first strategy considered impact as IREL = #REL / P, and the second strategy measured impact as RREL = #REL × P, where #REL is the total number of REL in a period, and P is the size of the population in the same period and geographical area. The analysis has revealed a complex pattern of changes in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria in the recent past, with areas where IREL and RREL have increased, and other areas where they have decreased. Municipalities where IREL has increased are mainly in the mountains, and municipalities where RREL has increased are mainly along the coasts. The complexity of the changes in the frequency and impact of rainfall-induced landslides observed in Calabria suggests that it remains difficult and uncertain to predict the possible variations in the frequency and impact of landslide in response to future climatic and environmental changes

Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides in Italy

Abstract. In Italy, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides that frequently cause fatalities and large economic damage. Using a variety of information sources, we have compiled a catalogue listing 753 rainfall events that have resulted in landslides in Italy. For each event in the catalogue, the exact or approximate location of the landslide and the time or period of initiation of the slope failure is known, together with information on the rainfall duration D, and the rainfall mean intensity I, that have resulted in the slope failure. The catalogue represents the single largest collection of information on rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, and was exploited to determine the minimum rainfall conditions necessary for landslide occurrence in Italy, and in the Abruzzo Region, central Italy. For the purpose, new national rainfall thresholds for Italy and new regional rainfall thresholds for the Abruzzo Region were established, using two independent statistical methods, including a Bayesian inference method and a new Frequentist approach. The two methods proved complementary, with the Bayesian method more suited to analyze small data sets, and the Frequentist method performing better when applied to large data sets. The new regional thresholds for the Abruzzo Region are lower than the new national thresholds for Italy, and lower than the regional thresholds proposed in the literature for the Piedmont and Lombardy Regions in northern Italy, and for the Campania Region in southern Italy. This is important, because it shows that landslides in Italy can be triggered by less severe rainfall conditions than previously recognized. The Frequentist method experimented in this work allows for the definition of multiple minimum rainfall thresholds, each based on a different exceedance probability level. This makes the thresholds suited for the design of probabilistic schemes for the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. A scheme based on four probabilistic thresholds is proposed. The four thresholds separate five fields, each characterized by different rainfall intensity-duration conditions, and corresponding different probability of possible landslide occurrence. The scheme can be implemented in landslide warning systems that operate on rainfall thresholds, and on precipitation measurements or forecasts

Diagnostic value of N-terminal ProB-Type Natriuretic Peptide in Emergency Department: Analysis by subgroups

Objectives. Our aim was to evaluate the diagnostic impact of N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurement in patients presenting with acute dyspnea in Emergency Department (ED), taking into account clinical and chest x-ray results routinely obtained. Methods. This was a prospective observational study. Four hundred eighty-eight consecutive subjects evaluated for dyspnea in a metropolitan 600 beds hospital ED, entered into the final data analysis. According to a clinical and radiological score, the patients enrolled were divided in three groups: low (A-group), intermediate (B-group), and high (C-group) probability of heart failure. Results. NT-proBNP median value was 2445 ng/L (Inter Quartile Range 631-5847 ng/L), and the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUC) was 0.854 for NT-proBNP, 0.921 for clinical/radiological score and 0.936 for the two in combination (logistic model). In the B-group (intermediate) NT-proBNP test added correct diagnostic information in 126 subjects with HF and in 53 subjects without a final diagnosis of HF. In A- and C-group NT-proBNP test added correct diagnostic information in 1 patient. Conclusions. NT-proBNP did not substantially enhance diagnostic accuracy in all patients with shortness of breath in ED. However, in patients with not conclusive clinical and radiological results NT-proBNP determinations improved the percentage of correct diagnosis

Influence of gravitational sympathetic stimulation on the surgical plethysmographic index

Surgical Plethysmographic Index (SPI), calculated from pulse photo-plethysmographic amplitude oscillations, has been proposed as a tool to measure nociception anti-nociception balance during general anesthesia, but it is affected by several confounding factor that alter the autonomic nervous system (ANS) modulation. We hypothesized that SPI may be mainly affected by sympathetic stimulation independently from nociception. We studied the effects of two sympathetic stimuli on SPI, delivered through passive head-up tilt at 45 and 90 degrees angles, in nine awake healthy adults. The sympathetic modulation was assessed by means of heart rate variability (HRV) analysis. Mean (SD) SPI significantly increased from baseline to 45 degrees [from 38.6 (13.7) to 60.8 (7.6), p<0.001)] and to 90 degrees angle tilt [82.3 (5.4), p<0.001]. The electrocardiographic mean R-to-R interval significantly shortened during both passive tilts, whereas systolic arterial pressure did not change during the study protocol. HRV changed significantly during the study protocol towards a predominance of sympathetic modulation during passive tilt. Gravitational sympathetic stimulation at two increasing angles, in absence of any painful stimuli, affects SPI in awake healthy volunteers. SPI seems to reflect the sympathetic outflow directed to peripheral vessels

Loss of lag-response curvilinearity of indices of heart rate variability in congestive heart failure

BACKGROUND: Heart rate variability (HRV) is known to be impaired in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). Time-domain analysis of ECG signals traditionally relies heavily on linear indices of an essentially non-linear phenomenon. Poincaré plots are commonly used to study non-linear behavior of physiologic signals. Lagged Poincaré plots incorporate autocovariance information and analysis of Poincaré plots for various lags can provide interesting insights into the autonomic control of the heart. METHODS: Using Poincaré plot analysis, we assessed whether the relation of the lag between heart beats and HRV is altered in CHF. We studied the influence of lag on estimates of Poincaré plot indices for various lengths of beat sequence in a public domain data set (PhysioNet) of 29 subjects with CHF and 54 subjects with normal sinus rhythm. RESULTS: A curvilinear association was observed between lag and Poincaré plot indices (SD1, SD2, SDLD and SD1/SD2 ratio) in normal subjects even for a small sequence of 50 beats (p value for quadratic term 3 × 10(-5), 0.002, 3.5 × 10(-5 )and 0.0003, respectively). This curvilinearity was lost in patients with CHF even after exploring sequences up to 50,000 beats (p values for quadratic term > 0.5). CONCLUSION: Since lagged Poincaré plots incorporate autocovariance information, these analyses provide insights into the autonomic control of heart rate that is influenced by the non-linearity of the signal. The differences in lag-response in CHF patients and normal subjects exist even in the face of the treatment received by the CHF patients

Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides

Over the last 40 years, many contributions have identified empirical rainfall thresholds (e.g. rainfall intensity (I ) vs. rainfall duration (D), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall duration (ED), cumulated rainfall vs. rainfall intensity (EI)) for the possible initiation of shallow landslides, based on local and global inventories. Although different methods to trace the threshold curves have been proposed and discussed in literature, a systematic study to develop an automated procedure to select the rainfall event responsible for the landslide occurrence has only rarely been addressed. Objective criteria for estimating the rainfall responsible for the landslide occurrence play a prominent role on the threshold values. In this paper, two criteria for the identification of the effective rainfall events are presented. The first criterion is based on the analysis of the time series of rainfall mean intensity values over 1 month preceding the landslide occurrence. The second criterion is based on the analysis of the trend in the time function of the cumulated mean intensity series calculated from the rainfall records measured through rain gauges. The two criteria have been implemented in an automated procedure that is written in the R language. A sample of 100 shallow landslides collected in Italy from 2002 to 2012 was used to calibrate the procedure. The cumulated event rainfall (E) and duration (D) of rainfall events that triggered the documented landslides are calculated through the new procedure and are fitted with power law in the D, E diagram. The results are discussed by comparing the D, E pairs calculated by the automated procedure and the ones by the expert method